There’s been a lot of talk in the services arena about the cloud and delivering applications over broadband to a range of consumer electronics devices, most of which will be wirelessly connected. But where, exactly, are those devices? If the world is moving toward being hyperconnected and IP-enabled thanks to faster and faster networks and growing applications ecosystems, device makers certainly aren’t showing that they’re innovating for it.
To determine where the future of computing lies, consider the analyst predictions, such as those from Tim Bajarin, analyst at Creative Strategies Inc.. He says sales of mobile Internet devices (MIDs) or “netbooks,” lightweight ultra-portable computing devices that don’t have the full functionality of a laptop but offer immense productivity enhancements over smartphones, will double in 2009: 18 million netbooks were sold in 2008, and at least another 36 to 38 million will be sold worldwide in 2009, he said. Meanwhile, smartphones will account for 75 percent of all phones sold in the U.S. by 2012. Computing will be about delivering on a consumer thirst for anytime access to applications.
“Computing is a huge category for us going forward,” said Glenn Lurie, head of the emerging device unit at AT&T Inc. (T). “The smartphone is a computing platform, then there are ultramobile PCs, MIDs and mini netbooks. But they have to be connected so that customer can utilize that device at home, on the road, at Starbucks, wherever they can be. And they want to access the HSPA network, but also Wi-Fi or other macro network, and there should be a connection manager in that PC to find the best network for what they want to do.”
Judging from the swan song keynote by Apple Inc. (AAPL) at Macworld this week and the news out of the Consumer Electronics Show, however, no one’s really focused right now on making that part of the value chain into reality.
Evolutionary, Not Revolutionary
Let’s start with Apple. It’s been 25 years since the first Mac was released. And this is Apple’s last Macworld, it has said. There’s a bit of a fin de siecle feel to the whole event, what with ailing CEO Steve Jobs sitting this one out — for the first time ever. The blogosphere, meanwhile, flooded the cyberwaves with tales of the imminent release of an Apple netbook (Mac Mini), a new iPhone (iPhone Nano), or even a new mouse with iPhone-born, touchscreen-like capabilities that will revolutionize the way we interact with desktop software. But the analysts were less enthusiastic, setting a very low expectation level going into the keynote: Jobs replacement Phil Schiller will make evolutionary, rather than revolutionary, announcements, they said.
And it turns out the analysts were right. We were treated to refreshes of existing desktop software, and then a new 17-inch unibody upgrade (read: widescreen, and no removable battery) for the MacBook Pro. This announcement centered on a custom battery that offers a 5-year lifespan and an eight-hour charge. The laptop is light and thin, as one would expect, but it’s perhaps most notable for what it doesn’t have: embedded mobile broadband.
And what did Apple give us as a coda for a quarter-century years of computing innovation? Not very much. It did announce that iTunes users can now buy and download music tracks across a 3G network, not just Wi-Fi. Schiller also announced plans to make iTunes completely DRM-free, a move that provoked gasps but is long overdue from an anywhere, anytime content access perspective. It’s certainly only shocking because Apple is known for its paranoid, almost jealous need for environmental control over its devices and the software that connects to them. Schiller also unveiled plans for three-tier track pricing; but still no data plan-friendly subscription version.