WiMAX and LTE will reach critical mass soon, and everyone from Tier 1s to new entrants are thinking about what to do with all that landline-quality mobile broadband. But unfortunately, carriers aren't thinking about innovating, yet, beyond the technology itself.
When it comes to 4G project engagements, there are “tremendous amounts of info around network capability and the speeds it can achieve, and there’s a risk of getting lost in the technology of it," said Patrick Hayes, vice president at the consulting firm Cambridge Strategic Management Group (CSMG). "There is not a lot of new stuff that people are talking about yet that will enable 4G to really appeal in ways beyond the 3G model."
That raises a monetization issue. "How will operators make money with 4G?" he noted. "If a lot of what I can do today I can do tomorrow but maybe it’s faster, that’s interesting, but is that compelling to make users pay more for it?"
Operators are exploring the idea of going to a tiered billing model, with Sprint CEO Dan Hesse and AT&T's Ralph de la Vega both noting the merits of a per-gig postpaid model in recent public addresses. But that would require delivering a lot more value beyond zippier downloads.
Take airline pricing, for example. "If an airline raises fares on a route, within 10 minutes they’ll know if the increase will stick," Hayes explained. "If no one else follows, it falls apart, because it's all the same thing."
Moving Beyond 3G
The key to 4G success is understanding not just how bandwidth-intensive mobile apps will be enabled by 4G, but also how expanding the device capabilities and the types of devices available in the first place can change how we use those applications. In other words, the 3G model needs to be left far, far behind.
"We call it a mobile tsunami," said Pat McCarthy, vice president of global marketing for service delivery solutions at Telcordia. "There's a race to mobile broadband – who will have it when and what’s different – but is it going to change the leaderboard? It certainly should, but they have to think very differently."
Ideally, 4G would be about creating interlaced groups of functionalities that become interwoven into the fabric of users' lives. Some could be cloud-based, some user-generated, some sprung from social networking. If that sounds abstract, it is, which is why some are endeavoring to show the concept, not just tell.
At this year’s spring CTIA, Alcatel-Lucent offered an immersive video demonstration experience that took visitors inside a 4G world, showing what it would be like to drive cars with touchscreen-enabled windshield data feeds. It felt a bit like a being a fighter pilot in a video game, with things like wind speed, map info and nearby landmarks scrolling down the side of the screen. A hand swipe could bring up other data, like traffic mapping. No word, though, on how such functionality would change safety regulations.