Don’t Expect a Single 4G Victor

GigaOm’s Om Malik has an interview today with Hakan Eriksson, the CTO of wireless infrastructure giant Ericsson (ERIC), in which Eriksson dismisses WiMAX as not even a true 4G wireless broadband technology. That’s not surprising, given that Ericsson is one of the major backers of rival 4G technology LTE, and that many of its carrier customers have lined up to offer their support to LTE.

The VON Conference & Expo will devote a session to this subject, entitled “4G Smackdown: The Future of WiMAX & LTE.” Many observers will tell you, of course, that there’s no smackdown at all; WiMAX and LTE will coexist, just as today DLS and cable coexist, with different footprints (often within the same geographical areas) and different use cases.

xchange executive editor Tara Seals made this point back in March, with an article headlined, “Despite LTE’s Success, WiMAX Shows Growth.” While LTE “has gained momentum and carrier backing as the de facto 4G standard for national networks in developed countries,” Seals reported, “the fact is that WiMAX might in fact be poised for widespread uptake on a worldwide level.”

Looking at Clearwire, which unveiled plans for its rollout of WiMAX service in major cities, ABI Research Inc. analyst Phil Solis said, “Even if they do not get additional capital, they will have enough to get started in the current climate.” ABI forecasted a striking 4,500 percent growth in subscriber revenue this year for global WiMAX services.

Verizon Wireless (VZ), meanwhile, said it “will likely phase out its EV-DO Rev. A 3G network in the next few years as its LTE network is ramped up.” That declaration was made, as it happens, by Verizon CTO Tony Melone at Ericsson’s Capital Markets Day. The new data-optimized 4G network (which will also carry voice), Melone added, will make the data-only Rev. A infrastructure redundant.

The advent of true 4G networks raises a question for many carriers: How will wireless broadband affect legacy wireline networks? Wireline systems have plenty of technological advantages, but the mere fact of mobility is going to make the wireless play a powerful one: Comcast (CMCSA), for example, is launching service on top of the Clearwire WiMAX network in Portland, Ore., and plans to offer the piggyback wireless, as part of a quad-play bundle, in 80 markets by 2010.

By then we’ll be very close to the inflection point when the number of wireless connections overtakes the number of wireline connections. At that point, as they say, it’s anybody’s ball game.

Join us at VON in Miami, at 10 a.m. on Wednesday, Sept. 23, for more insight into the new world of wireless broadband.