WiMAX Forecast for 2009: Cloudy

On Jan. 6, with great fanfare, Clearwire (CLWR) announced the first “commercial” launch of its to-be-nationwide-eventually WiMAX network, in Portland.

"Today is a historic day for the evolution of mobile computing and communications services in Portland, and the U.S.," said Clearwire’s Benjamin Wolff, in a statement. Clearwire already offers a beta service in Baltimore, which was launched last September.

Formed from the merger of Sprint Nextel's (S) Xohm unit and the well-funded startup created by cellular pioneer Craig McCaw, Clearwire has a lot going for it. WiMAX, the hotly anticipated “4G” wireless broadband technology the company is basing its network on, offers high speeds and a much larger geographical range than conventional cellular networks, offering the prospect of lower capital costs. Clearwire is backed by some heavyweight tech and media powers, including Google Inc. (GOOG), Intel (INTC), Comcast (CCW) and Time Warner Cable (TWC), which have collectively pledged $3.2 billion. And WiMAX is considered by most analysts to have a 12-to-24-month lead over Long Term Evolution, or LTE, the chief rival technology for 4G network supremacy.

The company also plans to add voice calling to its offerings, with a “Clear Voice Adapter” that connects a landline phone to the Clearwire home modem for VoIP service.

Still, WiMAX, the technology, and Clearwire the company both face a tough road ahead in 2009. Clearwire’s build-out plans have been pushed back several times, and the company will cover only nine markets by the end of the year, according to a new report from equity research firm ThinkEquity LLC. Analyst Eric Kainer foresees that Clearwire could have difficulty raising the cash to complete its ambitious coast-to-coast wireless network. Wolff has said that the company could need an additional $2 billion in financing.